The Stats That Suggest Erling Haaland Is Set to Easily Claim the Golden Boot

After netting nine goals in his initial seven league matches, City forward Erling Haaland has begun the season in spectacular form.

Although this isn't his best start to a campaign - he scored 11 goals in his opening seven appearances in 2022-23 and ten in the previous campaign - it still puts him with a three-goal lead in the opening stages for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

What makes this zero of his nine conversions have been spot-kicks makes it even more impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Of course, fitness issues could potentially disrupt in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two reasons why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the award so quickly into the term.

First, the total of conversions he has already scored - and, equally significant, the number and quality of opportunities he's receiving.

Secondly, the modest opening his usual rivals for the honor have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A footballer's xG statistic (xG) represents how many goals a Premier League player has traditionally converted from the total and standard of opportunities he's received.

This isn't a number randomly picked by data analysts, but by English top-flight records.

When examining at players' xG in the Premier League so far this term from normal play, the Scandinavian attacker is getting so many more quality chances to find the net than any other player.

Indeed, even if Haaland wasn't superior at scoring from situations than anyone else in the division, he would nonetheless have netted significantly more goals as everyone else.

Scoring Situation Assessment

That is demonstrated by examining the quantity and caliber of scoring situations that footballers have received in the English first division so far.

Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this season, a dozen more than every other footballer.

Interestingly, this is not particularly unusual for him - he had in fact attempted more non-penalty shots at this point in the most recent two terms (30 in last season and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

What's particularly remarkable even by his standards is the caliber of opportunities he has had this term. His shots have had an chance quality metric of 0.27 on average.

This number represents is that players have historically converted the shots he has had at a rate of 27%.

Regarding attackers registering at least 10 shots, only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to net per shot - due to a few simple finishes against West Ham and Brighton.

City striker's xG statistic of an average of 0.27 is considerably superior than the 0.17 xG rating per shot he had at the beginning of the previous campaign.

To summarize, the opportunities he has had in the current season have been considerably more favorable to find the net from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the start of the previous campaign.

Historical Comparison

Beginning a campaign so impressively is, as mentioned above, not uncommon for Haaland. After seven games last campaign he had netted ten times - four additional compared to anyone else and six more than Mohamed Salah.

However, it was the Reds attacker who claimed the top scorer award with twenty-nine strikes, seven more than the Etihad attacker.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has netted fifty percent fewer goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this stage last season.

In fact this has been the quietest start to a Premier League term the Egyptian attacker has made.

Competitors' Modest Opening

It's not merely Salah who has started slowly either. If we look at the highest eleven attackers in the English top division last campaign, Haaland has scored as many goals as the other 10 players collectively so far.

Whether due to physical problems - several key attackers - extended transfer dramas in Alexander Isak's case or just due to the fact that their teams have struggled (multiple established scorers), Haaland's probable competitors in the contest for the top scorer award have failed to perform so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

Although the Norwegian appears the obvious frontrunner for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the European top scorer prize that is presented to the attacker netting the highest number in the continent's elite divisions?

That contest is considerably more open at this initial phase because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have likewise begun in excellent condition, with 11 and 9 conversions each.

The reality Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the top chance quality metric of the three players without having taken any penalties positions him as the favourite.

But since the English and French stars are among the finest finishers in European soccer in terms of outperforming their chance quality metrics, the race is certainly on.