Gaza Ceasefire Offers Real Relief, However Trump's Pledge of a Era of Prosperity Appears Meaningless

The respite following the halt in hostilities in Gaza is substantial. Across Israel, the release of the living hostages has led to extensive joy. Throughout Gaza and the West Bank, celebrations are taking place as approximately 2,000 Palestinian inmates are being freed – although distress lingers due to doubt about the identities of those released and their eventual placements. Across northern Gaza, civilians can finally go back to dig through rubble for the remnants of an estimated 10,000 those who have disappeared.

Truce Development Against Earlier Odds

Only three weeks ago, the likelihood of a ceasefire appeared remote. Yet it has been implemented, and on Monday Donald Trump departed Jerusalem, where he was cheered in the Knesset, to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. There, he joined a high-level peace summit of over 20 world leaders, among them Sir Keir Starmer. The diplomatic roadmap initiated there is due to be continued at a meeting in the UK. The US president, acting with international partners, managed to secure this deal happen – contrary to, not because of, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Palestinian Statehood Hopes Moderated by Historical Realities

Expectations that the deal represents the initial move toward Palestinian statehood are comprehensible – but, given historical precedent, somewhat optimistic. It lacks a transparent trajectory to self-rule for Palestinians and threatens separating, for the near term, Gaza from the West Bank. Then there is the complete destruction this war leaves behind. The absence of any schedule for Palestinian autonomy in Mr Trump’s plan gives the lie to vainglorious mentions, in his Knesset speech, to the “historic dawn” of a “era of prosperity”.

Donald Trump could not help himself sowing division and personalising the deal in his speech.

In a time of relief – with the hostage release, halt in fighting and restart of aid – he chose to recast it as a morality play in which he solely reclaimed Israel’s honor after purported disloyalty by former US presidents Obama and Biden. This even as the Biden administration a year ago having tried a analogous arrangement: a ceasefire tied to humanitarian access and future negotiations.

Substantive Control Essential for Legitimate Peace

A proposal that refuses one side meaningful agency cannot yield legitimate peace. The halt in hostilities and humanitarian convoys are to be embraced. But this is not yet diplomatic advancement. Without mechanisms guaranteeing Palestinian involvement and command over their own institutions, any deal threatens perpetuating oppression under the rhetoric of peace.

Relief Imperatives and Recovery Hurdles

Gaza’s people crucially depend on emergency support – and food and medicines must be the primary focus. But reconstruction should not be postponed. Among 60 million tonnes of debris, Palestinians need help reconstructing homes, schools, hospitals, places of worship and other organizations shattered by Israel’s military operation. For Gaza’s provisional leadership to succeed, funding must flow quickly and security gaps be remedied.

Similar to much of Donald Trump's diplomatic proposal, references to an global peacekeeping unit and a recommended “diplomatic committee” are worryingly ambiguous.

International Support and Future Prospects

Robust international support for the Palestinian leadership, enabling it to succeed Hamas, is probably the most encouraging scenario. The tremendous pain of the recent period means the humanitarian imperative for a settlement to the conflict is potentially more critical than ever. But even as the halt in fighting, the homecoming of the detainees and commitment by Hamas to “disarm” Gaza should be recognized as positive steps, the president's track record provides scant basis to trust he will accomplish – or feel bound to try. Short-term relief does not mean that the likelihood of a Palestinian state has been brought closer.